PRR834

Title:	ERCOT Load Forecast Accuracy
Next Group:	PRS
Next Step:	PRS consideration of PRR834
Status:	Pending

Date	Gov Body	Next Steps
12/17/2009	PRS	Deferred/Tabled	PRS consideration of PRR834
11/19/2009	PRS	Deferred/Tabled	PRS consideration of PRR834
10/22/2009	PRS	Deferred/Tabled	PRS consideration of PRR834
09/30/2009	PRS		PRS consideration of PRR834

Date	Gov Body	Motion	Result	Against	Abstentions
12/17/2009	PRS	To table PRR834 until after the Load forecasting workshop.	Passed	0	0
11/19/2009	PRS	To table PRR834 for one month.	Passed	0	0
10/22/2009	PRS	To table PRR834 for one month.	Passed	0	1 Ind Gen
09/30/2009	PRS	To grant PRR834 Urgent status.	Passed

Status:	Pending
Date Posted:	09/24/2009
Sponsor:	Luminant, CPS Energy and NRG Texas
Urgent:	Yes
Sections:	2.2, 4.4.7.1 (new), 4.4.7.2 (new), 4.4.7.3 (new), 6.4.2
Description:	This Protocol Revision Request (PRR) proposes revisions that are intended to monitor and establish performance standards for ERCOT’s Load forecasting of the ERCOT Region and ERCOT Congestion Zones. This PRR also proposes non-substantive administrative changes, such as correcting acronym and defined term usage and section references. These are shown below with the author “ERCOT Market Rules.”
Reason:	As documented in the Independent Market Monitor's (IMM’)s State of the Market Report, there is “A continued strong positive bias in ERCOT’s day-ahead load forecast ….” This positive bias tends to “regularly commit online resources in excess of the quantity required to meet expected demand and operating reserve requirements,” and tends to lead to “the depression of real-time prices relative to a more optimal unit commitment.” [1] This PRR is designed to provide information to ERCOT to facilitate more accurate Load forecasts and improve the process. This PRR introduces a widely accepted practice in forecasting of probability weighting multiple Load forecasts and reducing the Load forecast error. The PRR provides one methodology to probability weight the forecast; however, other equally performing methods for probability weighting may also be suitable, especially to ease ERCOT’s implementation. By changing the ERCOT Load forecast methodology as proposed herein, it may require additional measures to be taken to allow ERCOT Operations to maintain the reliability embodied by the present Load forecasting methodology. [1] 2008 State of the Market Report for the ERCOT Wholesale Electricity Markets, dated August 2009, Potomac Economics, Ltd at xxi and xxii.